This web page brings you Bible Prophecy Updates that
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relate to predictions made in 2007 in DOC VOL 7
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May 25, 2010
As Dr. Briggs has been predicting since 2007, certain end-time global shifts must occur. These global shifts are underway and this webpage (Bible Prophecy Updates) was established to expose events that directly or indirectly relate to said global shifts. The weblink below is a must see video clip that further indicates that the world is getting closer to the end and in the manner that was predicted in Disciples of Christ Volume 7. More Bible Prophecy related information will be posted as it is discovered.
Click Here to See Video Clip
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1290 Days
An additonal consideration regarding the 1290 Days count (as found in the Book of Daniel) from 691 A.D., as shown below, brings another significant impact relative to the 1981 A.D. date (see DOC Vol 7).
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) was created on May 25, 1981 comprised of the Persian Gulf states of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. This unified economic agreement between the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council was signed on November 11, 1981 in Riyadh. These countries are often referred to as The GCC States.
Of course not all of the countries neighboring the Persian Gulf are members of the council at this time. Iran and Iraq are currently excluded although both nations have a coastline on the Persian Gulf. The associate membership of Iraq in certain GCC-related institutions was discontinued after the invasion of Kuwait. The GCC States have announced that they support the Document of The International Compact with Iraq that was adopted at Sharm El-Sheikh on 4-5 May 2007. It calls for regional economic integration with the neighboring states but there is no prospect of Iraqi accession to the GCC.
Yemen is in negotiations for GCC membership, and hopes to join by 2016. The GCC has already approved Yemen's accession to the GCC Standardization Authority, Gulf Organization for Industrial Consultancy, GCC Auditing and Accounting Authority, Gulf Radio and TV Authority, The GCC Council of Health Ministers, The GCC Education and Training Bureau, The GCC Council of Labor & and Social Affairs Ministers, and The Gulf Cup Football Tournament. The Council issued directives that all the necessary legal measures be taken so that Yemen would have the same rights and obligations of GCC member states in those institutions. There is, however, strong resistance to full Yemeni membership amongst most GCC states, due to the country's poverty, large population, and different system of government.
A GCC common market was launched on January 1, 2008. The common market grants national treatment to all GCC firms and citizens in any other GCC country, and in doing so removes all barriers to cross country investment and services trade. A customs union was declared in 2003, but practical implementation has lagged behind. Indeed, shortly afterwards, Bahrain concluded a separate Free Trade Agreement with the USA, in effect cutting through the GCC's agreement, and causing much friction.
The GCC members and Yemen are also members of the Greater Arab Free Trade Area (GAFTA). However, this is unlikely to significantly affect the agenda of the GCC as it has a more aggressive timetable than GAFTA and is seeking greater integration.
Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar on December 15, 2009 announced the creation of a Monetary Council, a step toward establishing a shared currency. The board of the council, which will set a timetable for establishing a joint central bank and choose a currency regime, will meet for the first time on March 30, 2010.
Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed Sabah al-Salem al- Sabah said on December 8, 2009 that a single currency may take 10 years to establish. The original target was in 2010. A more reasonable date would be 2015 or later, which aligns better with Bible Prophecy. And, on March 15, 2010 United Arab Emirates said it remains committed to the concept of a single currency, though free trade in the region must come first and admits that a 2015 or later date would be more reasonable. The U.A.E., withdrew from the currency project in May of 2009 after the Saudi capital, Riyadh was selected as the location for the Monetary Council, the future central bank. The U.A.E. has no plans to rejoin the union project.
Back in 2009, the news showed these kinds of statements, “The Gulf monetary union pact has come into effect,” said Kuwait’s finance minister, Mustafa al-Shamali, speaking at a Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) summit in Kuwait.
The move will give the hyper-rich club of oil exporters a petro-currency of their own, greatly increasing their influence in the global exchange and capital markets and potentially displacing the US dollar as the pricing currency for oil contracts. Between them they amount to regional superpower with a GDP of $1.2 trillion (£739bn), some 40pc of the world’s proven oil reserves, and financial clout equal to that of China. But recently, the news shows this, Gulf Arab oil producers need a strong single currency, and are watching the euro zone’s troubles, but their goal is still a long way off, Bahrain’s Finance Minister Sheikh Ahmad bin Mohammad al-Khalifa said.
Central bankers from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain launched a forerunner for a joint central bank in March but they did not give a target date for setting up the single currency.
Last year, GCC abandoned an initial 2010 deadline for issuing common notes and coins.
It has not specified a new timeframe for the launch but many analysts see 2015 as a likely launch date.
"In a reflection to the sophisticated nature of the technical, legislative and institutional requirements, I don't foresee the currency to be launched in 2015," Attiyah said.
The above anticipated GCC currency correction is a much better fit relative to Bible Prophecy (see DOC Vol 7) and it is still believed that the GCC currency is a precursor that will lead to an eventual OIC single currency, since the GCC members are all members of the OIC. Either way, the GCC already represents a significant economic portion of the OIC with other dominant OIC members seeking or anticipating GCC membership.
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May 15, 2010
The following current events (see below) speaks further to the prophecied fall of Mystery Babylon. Global economics is becoming weaker and weaker causing an unprecedented volatility. As predicted, this volatility must occur prior to the Bible prophecied and forthcoming fall of Mystery Babylon.
To better understand these Bible Prophecy Updates, it is important to first read Disciples of Christ Volume Seven. Only then will most of these news updates, clips and essays make sense. The DOC Vol 7 e-book is FREE and can be downloaded from off this website.
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The following two articles are excerpts from Equedia (www.equedia.com)
Article One - by Mr. Casey, Reporter for Equedia
On February 28, 2010, we published an edition titled, "The Crash of 2010." During that time, the markets were strong and stocks were flying higher and higher. Many didn't take the report seriously.
On May 6, 2010, the Dow plunged 998 points - in less than 5 minutes. The biggest intraday drop in stock market history. Sure there were speculations that it was a computer glitch or an error in the system and not the markets themselves.
But now they're saying that it was money manager Waddell & Reed who executed a bunch of e-mini contracts during a 20-minute span, which then caused high frequency computer trading accounts and stop losses to get triggered.
It wiped one trillion dollars worth of wealth in the markets in a matter of minutes.
That's $1,000,000,000,000
Imagine the amount of wealth that was lost....
Although conspiracy theories are entertaining, we certainly do not call ourselves conspiracy theorists. But many conspiracy theories have substance backed by facts.
Conspiracy or not, we do know how the markets can work...
Market Manipulation?
When you have big bucks, smart people, and a world of panic-stricken investors, market manipulation is easy.
Think about it. If Waddell & Reed collaborated with some of the major players in this world, maybe the same guys that are under investigation for manipulating the precious metals market, they could easily set off a round of sell-offs and make major profits by shorting the markets.
As Waddell & Reed pulls the trigger on the e-mini sell-offs, the other players have already gone short and put stop losses around the board. This would cause other stop losses to trigger and panic-stricken investors to immediately sell. The markets go into a freefall and investors continue to dump with reckless abandon.
Of course, this is just a theory. This may, or may not, have happened. But what did happen was a historical one day drop of 998 points.
The point is, our markets are nowhere near the proximity of being safe - and market manipulators know this and are profiting from this every day. They know this is a trader's market. And they know after what happened in the last few years, investors will bail at any sign of weakness. They know that fear is still the word on the Street and they're playing this to their advantage.
Gold has just recently broke out to hit a new all-time high. Silver is nearing the $20 threshold which could easily break through in the near term. This will, in turn, make many of the gold and silver junior plays that much more attractive….
The past few weeks speak for themselves. The markets are falling while precious metals prices are breaking records.
These precious metals are trying telling us something.
They're trying to tell us that our society no longer believes in its government and its financial systems. They're telling us they're the only thing in this market that has any real value.
The more the government tries to shield us from risk and uncertainty, the worse things become. The more they try and help, the more risk and uncertainty they convey. Ultimately, the more they help, the more they spend and borrow - without a way to pay it all back.
Article Two by Jeff Clark, Editor of Equedia
Greece's Gordian Knot of public debt has not been solved. In fact, Moody's is considering downgrading Greece's debt to junk status, stating that the announced €750 billion aid package will be "inadequate to stabilize the problems in both Greece and Portugal."
Ireland appears next likely to be downgraded. Spain and Italy are not far behind. And little reported is the European Central Bank (ECB) saying it will purchase billions of troubled assets from Europe's largest banks as part of the rescue program. Where have we seen this before? And gee, it's worked so well; 68 U.S. banks have failed so far in 2010, a full year after the government provided bailout money.
But it's the long-term consequences of intended ECB actions that are most worrisome. "The ECB is going to crank up the printing presses," says Anton Börner, head of Germany's export federation. "In five to ten years we will have a weak currency, with rising inflation and higher rates of inflation that will act as a break on growth."
Nouriel Roubini notes that "rising sovereign debt from the U.S. to Japan and Greece will ultimately lead to higher inflation or government defaults. While today markets are being worried about Greece, Greece is just the tip of the iceberg."
So the obvious question is, what happens to the gold price as debt contagion spreads beyond Greece and the monetary effects of the bailout slam onto the shores of other European countries?
The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 90.1%, and the projected 2011 budget deficit is $1.26 trillion or 7.1% of GDP. Total U.S. debt exceeds $55 trillion, over $180,000 per citizen, and the new healthcare legislation is expected to add another $1 trillion burden on the economy. These numbers put America in league with our squealing European friends mentioned above.
Plus, the U.S. monetary base was ballooned and remains over $2 trillion. Are we absolutely sure governments are done printing money? How will government leaders react if bank failures continue? Or commercial real estate crashes? Or state pensions begin to fail? Or unemployment remains in double digits?
It’s clear the U.S. dollar will suffer inflation due to high and growing debt-servicing costs, government payrolls, and unfunded entitlement promises. The U.S. can either default or inflate, and the former is unthinkable to a career politician. At some point – and we think it is fast approaching – global investors will see that U.S. indebtedness has reached unsustainable levels and exit the dollar, which today means selling bonds. Interest rates will be forced higher, and the U.S. will face its own Greek Moment.
THREE: The public still doesn’t own much gold.
This may be the biggest one of all. To show just how small the investment in gold is on a worldwide scale, consider these facts:
- Jim Rogers reported that at a conference of 300 money managers last month, 76% admitted they still own no gold.
- Fund manager John Paulson is having difficulty raising money for his gold fund.
- Total investment in all forms of gold represents less than 1% of global financial assets. If investment demand merely doubles to 2% – something we see as easily attainable – it will have a powerful effect on the gold price.
What happens to the gold price when the public begins to clamor for it and a true gold rush gets underway?
FOUR: The Unknown Unknowns.
A boxing coach will tell you rule #1 is to not get fixated on the hand that’s punching you – because that’s when the other glove comes flying in and decks you, sending you down for the count.
It’s the unexpected event, the unforeseen catastrophe, the surprise punch that could catch us all off guard and send gold higher. And while we may like the green on our screen from a rising gold price, my fear is that an unexpected economic or monetary ambush could be serious enough that what the gold price is doing is a secondary affair.
Prepare for the unknown. And that, perhaps, is gold’s greatest strength – not that it can make you rich, but that it protects you and your family from unpredictable events that would otherwise be catastrophic.
Whether you agree or not that gold will reach $5,000 an ounce, don’t miss the point. Any number of events could send gold higher. And it is during calamitous times of crisis, devaluation, debasement, inflation, and the unknown that gold is needed most. Imagine the Greek worker who has one-third of his assets in gold right now; he may be smiling more than rioting.
I think the rise in price is sending us a message. And this is what I think gold is saying...
I won’t always be this cheap. If you don’t buy me soon, you may regret it. I may get less expensive in the short term, but don’t mistake that to mean I’m losing value or that everything is fine with your paper currencies or your economic future. What you’ve done to your fiat currencies will hurt you. What is coming to the price of things will overwhelm you. What the government has debased will haunt you. I’m here to protect your finances. I may be the only thing that can really do that.
You can be cautious about the price, but don’t be short-sighted about the purpose. Are you sure you own enough of me?
Closing Comments written by Rev. Dr. Briggs
As I have been predicting, regarding the soon and eventual fall of Mystery Babylon, it is clear that some economists can also see the “handwriting on the wall” but due to their lack of Biblical knowledge and faith in YHVH, they do not know how to interpret what is going on in our world and therefore cannot provide helpful spiritual advise.
As I have additional world news updates regarding end times, I will make them available.
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March 20, 2010
Take a look at recent news that indicates a further decline in the US Dollar value that will ripple around the world via stakeholders in the IMF (and the SDR currency):
"The share of borrowers who are falling seriously behind on loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration jumped by more than a third in the past year, foreshadowing a crush of foreclosures that could further buffet an agency vital to the housing market's recovery... For now, just about every major measure of the agency's (Federal Housing Administration) financial health is worsening. " - Washington Post
"It's devastating," says Mr. Dan Claggett. "We helped an 85-year-old woman who couldn't get a loan modification. She lost the home that she lived in for 35 years". - Financial Times
"The federal government and states are girding themselves for the next foreclosure crisis in the country's housing downturn: payment option adjustable rate mortgages that are beginning to reset." - Reuters
"We can't lose sight of what remains our biggest collective challenge -- the recovery is by no means fully assured. Too many citizens in all of our countries are still feeling the recession's impacts...We must continue with our stimulus measures. At the same time, it also behooves us to put our minds to how these will be balanced with exit strategies." - Stephen Harper
The Following is an Excerpt from Equedia:
One analyst recently argued that the only major problem still existing in the U.S. economy is the U.S. housing market. A Deutschebank study recently reported that by the first quarter of 2011, 48% of U.S. homes are expected to be under water, i.e., owing more on the mortgages than the market value of the home.
Fannie Mae announced Friday a net loss of 74.7 billion dollars in 2009. That's even worse than in 2008, when the mortgage finance giant posted a loss of 59.8 billion dollars. This time Fannie Mae said it would tap an additional 15.3 billion taxpayer dollars from the US Treasury by March 31.
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, more than one in 10 mortgage holders is behind on payments and, adding those in the process of foreclosure, more than 15 percent of borrowers are delinquent - the highest level ever recorded since its survey began more than 40 years ago.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the agency that guarantees up bank deposits, said that more than 700 banks are in trouble.
But those points alone are far from being the problem.
The problem on the horizon, if not immediately fixed by the Government, may make the subprime mortgage crisis that helped send the Dow below 7000 look like a walk in the park.
Overall foreclosures are expected to hit an all-time high of 3 million units this year - despite ramped-up efforts by the Obama administration to bolster loan modifications.
Mortgage foreclosures due to option ARM defaults are expected to begin this spring and peak late this summer. It will surpass the number of foreclosures resulting from the recent subprime mortgage mess.
For budget-tight homeowners, it was an offer they couldn't refuse: Refinance your mortgage at a discounted rate and cut your payments in half. No down payment needed, no document required, just sign on the dotted line. In a hot real estate market where prices had gone far beyond anyone's wildest imagination, new home buyers were jumping at the chance to own their new homes - without realising what they were really doing.
For the many who got suckered, they are in for a rude awakening. While many Americans are worrying about dramatically declining home prices, borrowers who jumped at the sweet sound of option ARM loans have another, more immediate problem: payments that are about to skyrocket far beyond what they are capable of paying.
For those of us in Canada who have not heard of the Option Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMS), you are going to be shocked.
It's one of the few mortgages that can actually have "negative amortization," meaning the unpaid portion of the accruing interest is added to the outstanding principal balance. So even if you make payments on time, you may end up owing more than you initially invested and thus, your payments could rise substantially.
Any mortgage that is allowed to generate negative amortization means that the borrower is reducing his equity in his home, which increases the chance that he won't be able to sell it for enough to repay the loan. When you combine that with the substantial decrease in US properties values, you can see how big this problem has become.
As mentioned as much as 81% of the option ARMs originating in 2007 are expected to default, with many ending in foreclosure. About $750 billion worth of option ARMs were issued between 2004 and 2007. . . and will begin resetting in the next few months. Most of these loans will be underwater - not to mention the negative amortization factor. So although these foreclosures will spread over the next few years, it will take a long time (over two-three years) before things settle.
Assuming the above sentiment, rising foreclosures will undoubtedly add to the unemployment figures, or vice versa, which will ultimately lead to another sell-off in the markets. When you combine this with the threat of either inflation or stagflation and the possible bubble in China, you can see why our stance remains firm that the market will correct itself in 2010, or early 2011 before finally settling down in 2012 and 2013.
These events further sets the economic stage for the fall of Mystery Babylon.
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February 28, 2010
An additional prophecy related article is now published on our Website. Please click here to jump you to that article. It is an advanced study relative to the Image and Mark of the Beast. As more information is available, it will also be posted.
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February 15, 2010
Russia is an Observer nation of the OIC, as well as several others including Thailand. The UN is also an Observer intergovernmental organization of the OIC, as well as several others.
China has spoken out in in favor of and in alignment with the OIC's position on a Palestinian State.
H.E. Dr. Mahmood Ahmadi Nejad, President of the Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran being the two-horned lamb), was unanimously elected as the Chairman of the 10th Summit of the Economic Cooperation Organisation, an arm of the OIC. Remember he also went to hajj last year in an attempt to unite the two main branches of Islam, Sunni and Shia.
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February 9, 2010
Starting back in November 2009, hidden from the media over several weeks, the U.S. Treasury has been liquidating billions of U.S. dollars and trading it for a special currency you may have NEVER heard of - the same currency that China, Russia, oil-bearing Gulf countries, the UN, the IMF (International Monetary Fund), the World Bank, and many others have already suggested to replace the greenback as the world's main reserve currency.
This currency is called the Special Drawing Rights (SDR).
The SDR is an international reserve asset, created by the IMF in 1969 to supplement its member countries' official reserves. Its value is based on a basket of four key international currencies (currently the U.S. dollar, Euro, Japanese Yen, and the British pound), and SDRs can be exchanged for freely usable currencies.
General SDR allocation took effect on August 28, 2009 and a special allocation took place on September 9, 2009, which increased the amount of SDRs from SDR 21.4 billion to SDR 204.1 billion (currently equivalent to about $317 billion). And guess who took a large chunk of that?
Current SDR holdings in the U.S. Treasury now account for nearly 30% of the U.S. total foreign currency reserves. But this will not stop the eventual fall of Mystery Babylon since other currencies (like that of the Gulf's Monetary Union or the OIC's), which will be much better backed, with real value, will over throw the top three GDP economies of the world.
The above economic data was found on Equedia.com
More information coming soon as it becomes available.
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January 25, 2010
The reasons why Partial Peterists, Full Preterists, Historicists and some Futurists have their eschatology wrong, including variations by Irvin Baxter, Mike Blume, et al., are multiple. But, the most significant error is when they (some, if not all) misinterpret and misuse Matthew 23:30-39. Some incorrectly use Matthew 23 to implicate Jerusalem as Mystery Babylon.
The real problem here is their inability to see that the Matthew 23 passage does not match the Revelation 18:24 passage. It is true that Yahushua (Matthew 23) indicated that the "righteous blood" would come upon the Israeli generation that Yahushua was "born in" and "living among" (and rightly so if one reads Yahushua's argument and reviews history) but that "blood" (Matthew 23) is different than the "blood" (Revelation 18) that is found in "her" (Mystery Babylon--The Great Whore). The Matthew 23 "blood" is an imposed (established) guilt (erchomai epi-Greek transliteration) whereas the Revelation 18 "blood" is an actual "discovery of" (heurisko-Greek transliteration), i.e., a discovered guilt. Also, the Revelation 18 passage is a much broader "blood". It includes the blood of the "prophets", the blood of the "saints" ("righteous blood") and the blood of "all that were slain upon the earth", which incorporates both "righteous blood" and "unrighteous blood", with the latter being much larger than the former. This is just one of many misuses and misinterpretations of scriptures.
A second serious mistake made by many eschatologists is their faulty assumption that Antiochus Epiphanes is the one noted in Daniel 11:30-31. There are too many reasons to list all them here as to why this view is erroneous, but the most important reason is that Jewish sacrifices resumed on the temple mound following the Antiochus' act. His abominable act was only one of many of a long history of abominable acts, and it certainly did NOT end sacrifices until the consummation and that determined was fulfilled. There is only one constructed (set up) abomination that has prevented Jewish sacrifices that has lasted over 1290 days (years) and remains until this day (nearing 1335 days/years) and that is the Dome of the Rock, held in trust and controlled by the wakf and backed by UN resolution. Furthermore, if Antiochus was the marker, then Daniel would have risen to "stand" in his "lot" at the "end of the days" (Daniel 12:11-13), but that has not happened making the Antiochus marker an invalid view. For more information and details turn to DOC Volume Seven.
More examples will be added shortly.
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January 13, 2010
Here is a good link that provides current events relative to IRAN-ASEAN. More helpful links will be added as we locate them.
http://asean-iran.blogspot.com/
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January 8, 2010
As predicted in Disciples of Christ Volume Seven, Iran (via President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad) has already called for a joint OIC member currency and just a few weeks ago the Gulf Monetary Union publicly announced their planned 2010 currency back in mid-December 2009 (see below). This is just a precursor to other predictions made in the DOC Volume Seven. At this point it is difficult to say how long it will take for the OIC to actually approve and implement a joint OIC member currency, but it seems it is likely and that it is just a matter of time. This development should be watched closely.
The OIC (Organization of the Islamic Conference) started in 1969 and already has 57 member states representing over 1.2 billion people. They are already the second largest inter-governmental organization in the world, next to United Nations (UN). The OIC desires to portray themsleves as a peace-loving inter-governmental organization and will, in fact, fool many, even the Jews for awhile, when the Beast makes a covenant with "many" (Daniel 9:27) that directly or indirectly allows the Jews to return to worship on the temple mound for about 3.5 years. But this will just be a ploy to convince the "many" that the Beast is peace-loving and a method to gather as many Jews as possible back to Jerusalem.
To learn more historical and current info on the OIC, click here.
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As predicted in the Disciples of Christ Volume Seven, (DOC Vol Seven) a new currency is being launched by the Gulf Monetary Union (comprised of Arab States of the Gulf Region--Muslim countries). This is just the beginning, a precursor to what is yet to happen, as outlined in DOC Vol Seven. The article below was printed in the JoelsTrumpet.com website but this information can also be found elsewhere in many other news feeds, searchable on the internet.
The Arab states of the Gulf region have agreed to launch a single currency modelled on the euro, hoping to blaze a trail towards a pan-Arab monetary union swelling to the ancient borders of the Ummayad Caliphate. “The Gulf monetary union pact has come into effect,” said Kuwait’s finance minister, Mustafa al-Shamali, speaking at a Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) summit in Kuwait.
The move will give the hyper-rich club of oil exporters a petro-currency of their own, greatly increasing their influence in the global exchange and capital markets and potentially displacing the US dollar as the pricing currency for oil contracts. Between them they amount to regional superpower with a GDP of $1.2 trillion (£739bn), some 40pc of the world’s proven oil reserves, and financial clout equal to that of China.
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar are to launch the first phase next year, creating a Gulf Monetary Council that will evolve quickly into a full-fledged central bank.
The Emirates are staying out for now – irked that the bank will be located in Riyadh at the insistence of Saudi King Abdullah rather than in Abu Dhabi. They are expected join later, along with Oman.
The Gulf states remain divided over the wisdom of anchoring their economies to the US dollar. The Gulf currency – dubbed “Gulfo” – is likely to track a global exchange basket and may ultimately float as a regional reserve currency in its own right. “The US dollar has failed. We need to delink,” said Nahed Taher, chief executive of Bahrain’s Gulf One Investment Bank. The project is inspired by Europe’s monetary union, seen as a huge success in the Arab world. But there are concerns that the region is trying to run before it can walk.
Europe took 40 years to reach the point where it felt ready to launch a currency. It began with the creation of the Iron & Steel Community in the 1950s, moving by steps towards a single market enforced by powerful Commission and European Court. The EMU timetable was fixed at the Masstricht in 1991 but it took another 11 for euro notes and coins to reach the streets.
Khalid Bin Ahmad Al Kalifa, Bahrain’s foreign minister, told the FIKR Arab Thought summit in Kuwait that the project would not work unless the Gulf countries first break down basic barriers to trade and capital flows. At the moment, trucks sit paralysed at border posts for days awaiting entry clearance. Labour mobility between states is almost zero.
“The single currency should come last. We need to coordinate our economic policies and build up common infrastructure as a first step,” he said. Mohammed El-Enein, chair of the energy and industry committee in Egypt’s parliament, said Europe’s example could help the Arab world achieve its half-century dream of a unified currency, but the task requires discipline. “We need exactly the same institutions as the EU has created. We need a commission, a court, and a bank,” he said. The last currency to trade in souks from Marakesh, to Baghdad and Mecca, was the Ottomon Piaster, known as the “kurush”. It suffered chronic inflation as the silver coinage was debased.
There is a logic to an Arab currency. The region speaks one language, has the unifying creed of “Umma Wahida” or One Nation from the Koran, and has not torn itself apart in savage wars – ever – in quite the way that Europe has in living memory.
Yet hurdles are formidable even for the tight-knit group of Gulf states. While the eurozone is a club of rough equals – with Germany, France, Italy, and Spain each holding two votes on the ECB council – the Gulf currency will be dominated by Saudi Arabia. The risk is that other countries will feel like satellites. Monetary policy will inevitably be set for Riyadh’s needs.
Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paraibas, said the Gulf states may have romanticised Europe’s achievement and need to move with great care to avoid making the same errors.
“The Greek crisis has exposed the weak foundations on which the euro is built. The gap in competitiveness between core Europe and the periphery has grown wider and wider. The obvious mistake was to launch EMU without a central fiscal authority and political union, as the Bundesbank warned in the 1990s,” he said.
“The euro was created for political reasons after the fall of the Berlin Wall to lock Germany irrevocably into Europe. It was not done for economic reasons,” he said.
Ben Simpfendorfer, Asia economist for RBS and an expert on the Middle East, told the FIKR conference that the rise of China had paradoxically disrupted the case for pan-Arab economic integration.
There was a natural fit ten years ago between rich oil state and low-wage manufacturers in Egypt and Syria, but cheap exports from China have forced poorer Arab states to retreat behind barriers to shelter their industries. “The rationale for a single currency has become weaker,” he said.
The GCC also agreed to create a joint military strike force – akin to the EU’s rapid reaction force – to tackle threats such as the incursion of Yemeni Shiite rebels into Saudi territory earlier this year. This is a major breakthrough after years of deadlock on defence cooperation. The Sunni Gulf states are deeply concerned about the great power ambitions of Shiite Iran and its quest for nuclear weapons, to the point where the theme of a possible war between Iran and a Saudi-led constellation of states has crept into the media debate. They nevertheless repeated on Tuesday that “any military action against Iran” by Western powers would be unacceptable.
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